January 3, 2022
What China is now doing concerning Taiwan is very disheartening. It insists that Taiwan is part of mainland China and that it will never give up this belief, going to war with the U.S. if necessary to keep Taiwan from “seceding.” It’s as if China has abandoned its tradition of cooperation and replaced it with the struggle for power in competition with the U.S. and Western tradition.
China is confident in its handling of Hong Kong. Hong Kong, with a population of 7.5 million is mainly a financial hub; international interest is focused on making money—Wall Street interests. China has no problem arresting young people who foolishly defend Hong Kong as a “democracy.”
But Taiwan with its population of almost 24 million people is a different matter. Right now the Chinese in Taiwan seem perfectly content sharing in the prosperity fueled by the United States and doing things as they see fit. For example, when cases of Corona virus occur, they are able to persuade their population to lock down. However, If they are forced by China to break ties with the West and accept a role in the life style and ideology of mainland China, Taiwan will resist.The Chinese of Taipan need to make up their own minds: if their prosperity is lost, as I believe it will be as part of the continued decline of the U.S., they will voluntarily choose to be part of mainland China. China needs to be patient.
Also, the U.S. may lose interest in Taiwan because it has to defend against Russia’s growing influence in Central and South America. That also may encourage the Taiwanese to rejoin the mainland.